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Reference class forecasting

Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics.

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Overview

Practical use in policy and planning

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Reference class forecasting

Nodes31
Edges30
Triples23
Avg. degree1.94
Density0.064516
Components1

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Reference class forecasting

Top relations

related to Practical use in policy and planning · 21
Reference class forecasting → At, COWI, Edinburgh Tram Line, Flyvbjerg, Guidance Document, In, June, May, October, On, Ove Arup, Partners Scotland, Similarly, The, The Edinburgh Tram Line, This, Transport, Tversky, UK Department, Using
is a · 1
Reference class forecasting → method for taking an outside view on planned actions.Reference class forecasting for a specific project involves the following three steps

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Important terminology

reference class forecasting project forecast similar kahneman costs planning flyvbjerg problem outcomes use information view cost method tversky planned also

Entity relationships Subject–Predicate–Object triples

SubjectPredicateObjectConfidenceSrc
Reference class forecastingis amethod for taking an outside view on planned actions.Reference class forecasting for a specific project involves the following three steps0.90text
the sleeping beauty probleminstance ofand thought experiments0.80text
Reference class forecastingrelated to Practical use in policy and planningWhereas Kahneman0.60section
Reference class forecastingrelated to Practical use in policy and planningTversky0.60section
Reference class forecastingrelated to Practical use in policy and planningFlyvbjerg0.60section
Reference class forecastingrelated to Practical use in policy and planningCOWI0.60section
Reference class forecastingrelated to Practical use in policy and planningGuidance Document0.60section
Reference class forecastingrelated to Practical use in policy and planningJune0.60section
Reference class forecastingrelated to Practical use in policy and planningUK Department0.60section
Reference class forecastingrelated to Practical use in policy and planningTransport0.60section
Reference class forecastingrelated to Practical use in policy and planningIn0.60section
Reference class forecastingrelated to Practical use in policy and planningThis0.60section

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